posted at
http://aynrkey.blogspot.com/2008/06/importance-of-strategy.html by Ayn R Key
At the 2008 Libertarian Party convention, the Reform Caucus beat the Libertarian Caucus. Mainstream libertarians are not represented on the 2008 Libertarian Party presidential ticket. It would have been a good move on the part of the Reform Caucus to sponsor a unity ticket with a prominent member of the Libertarian Caucus in the Vice Presidential Candidate slot. Failing to think strategically the Reform Caucus wanted their victory over the Libertarian Caucus to be thorough. Now the result is a weakened candidate. There is much discontent within Libertarian Party ranks over this ticket.
Bob Barr is campaigning for votes outside the Libertarian Party. What he is neglecting is that he should be campaigning for votes inside the Libertarian Party as well. The Reform Caucus has, by choosing victory over strategy, alienated a large portion of the Libertarian Party. The reaction from the candidate himself has been “I’m the candidate so you will vote for me.” The reaction from the Reform Caucus has been to accuse everyone who hasn’t warmly and happily embraced the ticket of being sore losers, wanting to destroy the party, et cetera. The truth is that by placing victory at the convention over strategy, the Reform Caucus is more guilty of trying to fracture the party than the disenfranchised Libertarian Caucus is.
Barr does need to spend time advertising to the base. He is neglecting that duty, relying on “you have to vote for me” to get the votes from the base. Libertarians are notorious for rejecting calls for “you have to vote for me” as a substantial portion of libertarians are converts from major parties and those converts realized that they don’t have to vote for the candidate of the party. It doesn’t matter that the hated other party will win if the candidate for the party is just as bad. That’s not to say that Barr is as bad as Obama or McCain – he most certainly is not as bad as them. The question resolves to is he good enough to get the vote of those who will actually analyze a candidate instead of showing blind party loyalty.
Do you agree with this analysis of the facts?
Less
aynrkey
bostonteapartygoer
Kenn Jacobine
mattdharris
Mike Seebeck
Miche
paulie
Jim Davidson
ponggod
Stuart Richards
Todd Andrew Barnett
Paulie wrote, “Do you agree with this analysis of the facts?”
Pretty much.
The strange thing is, I’m not an anarchist, or even an extremist libertarian, nor am I a LGBT member – I’m actually very mainstream compared to most libertarians – so Barr’s nomination has alienated a much larger base than it appears at first glance.
Two points – If the libertarian “caucus” doesn’t vote for Barr, he loses what, 200,000 votes, maybe?
By going after disaffected conservatives, which in my opinion is why Barr was seeking the LP nomination in the first place, he will get, in my view up to 1 million votes. Throw in a hundred thousand protest votes, and you get, a vote total of- the “other usual” libertarian votes of 200,000, plus the 1 million conservative (at most) and another 100,000 protest votes, and Barr’s potential becomes 1.3 million. My guess is he will get 1.0 to 1.2 million.
Nah, I don’t think Barr cares about the “libertarians”. THAT was evident when he snubbed the delegates when he wouldn’t participate in the “unofficial” debate, where he and Finan were the only ones who didn’t participate. (Who is Finan, you ask . . . good question!) all I know is that he is from New York and he rode into Denver on his motorcycle, and his booth at the convention featured his motorcycle!
Actually, make that, Barr will get 0.8 to 1.2 million. It depends on how close the Obama/McCain split is perceived to be.
I agree. Shortly after the nomination, I decided to give Barr a chance. He has a great deal of political experience. He knows how to get votes and to win. I expected that he would cater to the pure libertarians to keep their vote.
More than a month later, I can confidently say that he has not. Tom Knapp has written about his failures to run a libertarian campaign. He has repeatedly spit anti-libertarian rhetoric. He is looking to get votes from outside the LP and neglecting to properly represent the platform or membership of the party. He is running a campaign to win, not a campaign to advance libertarianism. This will fail. I wrote a month ago that Barr will run the most successful campaign in the history of the LP. I am not so sure anymore. He is going to lose a lot of the traditional LP vote and the support of a great number of LP activists.
I am taking back what I said about Barr running the most successful campaign in LP history. I wrote it on the basis that he seemed to be catering a bit to the radical libertarians. He has failed to do this, so I withdraw my prediction, my support, and my vote.
Thank you for the kind words.